Rice-farming areas report more anxiety across two years of the COVID-19 pandemic in China

Cultures responded to the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We investigated cultural differences in mental health during the pandemic. We found regional differences in people's reports of anxiety in China over two years from 2020 to 2021 (N = 1186). People in areas with a history of rice farming reported more anxiety than people in wheat-farming areas. Next, we explored more proximal mechanisms that could help link the distal, historical factor of rice farming to people's modern experience of anxiety. Rice areas scored higher on collectivism and tight social norms than wheat areas, and collectivism, rather than norm tightness, mediated the rice-anxiety relationship. These findings advance our understanding of the distal sources of cultural differences, the proximal mechanisms, and mental health problems during the pandemics.

Game-Based Approaches to Enhancing Public Understanding of Science: A Descriptive Literature Review

With prominent looming global issues such as climate change and COVID-19, public understanding of science (PUS) is increasingly perceived to be vital for humanity to address and adapt to global wicked challenges. Compared to conventional approaches that struggle with public engagement, games can potentially remedy this by proactively engaging players towards more fruitful performance in and outside games. While the employment of game-based approaches in pedagogy in general is not a new development, gamifying PUS has only recently grown to relative prominence for its superiority in engaging the public with active science-derived interpretation, deliberation, and consequent action. To understand the state-of-the-art of this field, we conduct a systematic descriptive literature review of the extant corpus. We reviewed 29 papers and investigated their types of interventions, contexts, populations, and outcomes. The results overall indicate diverse yet imbalanced research focuses thus far, for which we discuss implications for future research. © 2023 IEEE Computer Society. All rights reserved.

Airborne infection risk in classrooms based on environment and occupant behavior measurement under COVID-19 epidemic

The changes of indoor environment and occupant behavior (OB) are two main causes for the gap between predicted and actual airborne infection risk. To improve the accuracy of COVID-19 airborne infection risk assessment, the environment (CO2 concentration) and OBs (occupant area per person (OA) and activity level (AL)) in three typical classrooms of a primary school in Tianjin, China was selected to conduct the on-site measurement. Based on the measured data, a modified Wells-Riley model was proposed to predict the infection risk, and a risk-controlled ventilation strategy was developed to calculate the ventilation demand. Results indicated that classrooms in the breaking time (B-T) showed a lower indoor CO2 concentration (C in), larger OA, and higher AL than in the teaching time (T-T). The variation tendency of the calculated infection risk increment in T-T was consistent with C in while in B-T was significantly affected by OA and AL, and the maximum fluctuation extent in B-T was two times of that in T-T. Moreover, to avoid the risk spreading in classrooms, a feasible solution of dynamic ventilation control based on the real-time infection risk was proposed, thus facilitating to provide a healthy and sustainable environment for students in classrooms. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Analysis of residents' travel mode choice during COVID-19 pandemic

This paper aims to explore the impact of residents'personal attributes, household attributes, travel characteristics, pandemic perception attributes, behavioral intentions, choice attitudes and other factors on travel mode choices in different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. A mixed Logit model is constructed based on the travel data from the sampling survey of Beijing residents under three stages of the pandemic, the initial phase, the outbreak phase, and the stabilization phase. The results show that travel distance is positively correlated with travel mode choice in all three stages of the pandemic. The maximum predicted marginal values of each stage and their corresponding variables are 3.299 (5~10 km), 2.983 (>10 km), and 3.148 (5~10 km), respectively, and long-distance travel has the greatest impact on the travel mode choice. The perceived attributes of the pandemic and travel distance have obvious moderating effects on the travel mode choice. During the pandemic outbreak period, the perceived pandemic attributes, behavioral intentions, and choice attitude variables have a significant negative correlation with the travel mode choice, and residents'psychological concern of being cross-infected during travel is obvious;only 18.8% of travelers choose to travel by bus or subway, and the travel structure changes significantly. During the stable period of the pandemic, the choice of attitude variable has a positive and significant impact on the choice of transportation mode, and the degree of influence becomes larger, indicating that travelers demand a higher rate of population contact and strictness of pandemic prevention measures for transportation mode. The research results can provide a reference basis for travel decisions of travelers under public health events and the prevention and control of the pandemic by relevant management departments. © 2022 Journal Northern Jiaotong University. All rights reserved.

Analysis of residents' travel mode choice during COVID-19 pandemic

This paper aims to explore the impact of residents'personal attributes, household attributes, travel characteristics, pandemic perception attributes, behavioral intentions, choice attitudes and other factors on travel mode choices in different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. A mixed Logit model is constructed based on the travel data from the sampling survey of Beijing residents under three stages of the pandemic, the initial phase, the outbreak phase, and the stabilization phase. The results show that travel distance is positively correlated with travel mode choice in all three stages of the pandemic. The maximum predicted marginal values of each stage and their corresponding variables are 3.299 (5~10 km), 2.983 (>10 km), and 3.148 (5~10 km), respectively, and long-distance travel has the greatest impact on the travel mode choice. The perceived attributes of the pandemic and travel distance have obvious moderating effects on the travel mode choice. During the pandemic outbreak period, the perceived pandemic attributes, behavioral intentions, and choice attitude variables have a significant negative correlation with the travel mode choice, and residents'psychological concern of being cross-infected during travel is obvious;only 18.8% of travelers choose to travel by bus or subway, and the travel structure changes significantly. During the stable period of the pandemic, the choice of attitude variable has a positive and significant impact on the choice of transportation mode, and the degree of influence becomes larger, indicating that travelers demand a higher rate of population contact and strictness of pandemic prevention measures for transportation mode. The research results can provide a reference basis for travel decisions of travelers under public health events and the prevention and control of the pandemic by relevant management departments. © 2022 Journal Northern Jiaotong University. All rights reserved.

Diagnosis, treatment and prevention of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in children: Experts' consensus statement (Fourth Edition). TT -.

Since December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS - CoV - 2) infections have raged globally for more than 2 years. China has always adopted scientific and effective prevention and control measures to achieved some success. However, with the continuous variation of SARS - CoV -2 cases and imported cases from abroad, the prevention and control work has become more difficult and complex. With the variation of the mutant strain, the number of cases in children changed, and some new special symptoms and complications were found, which proposed a new topic for the prevention and treatment of SARS - CoV - 2 infection in children in China. Based on the third edition, the present consensus according to the characteristics of the new strain, expounded the etiology, pathology, pathogenesis,and according to the clinical characteristics and experience of children's cases,and puts forward recommendaions on the diagnostic criteria,laboratory examination,treatment,prevention and control of children's cases for providing reference for further guidance of effective prevention and treatment of SARS - CoV - 2 infection in children in China.Copyright © 2022 Chinese Journal of Applied Clinical Pediatrics. All rights reserved.

Exploring the Effect of Social Media and Spatial Characteristics During the COVID-19 Pandemic in China

The declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic has largely amplified the spread of related information on social platforms, such as Twitter, Facebook and WeChat. In this work, we investigate how the disease and information co-evolve in the population. We focus on COVID-19 and its information during the period when the disease was widely spread in China, i.e., from January 25th to March 24th, 2020. The co-evolution between disease and information is explored via the spatial analysis of the two spreading processes. We visualize the geo-location of both disease and information at the province level and find that disease is more geo-localized compared to information. High correlation between disease and information data is observed, and also people care about the spread of disease only when it comes to their neighborhood. Regard to the content of the information, we obtain that positive messages are more negatively correlated with the disease compared to negative and neutral messages. Additionally, two machine learning algorithms, i.e., linear regression and random forest, are introduced to further predict the number of infected using characteristics, such as disease spatial related and information-related features. We obtain that both the disease spatial related characteristics of nearby cities and information-related characteristics can help to improve the prediction accuracy. The methodology proposed in this paper may shed light on new clues of emerging infections prediction. © 2013 IEEE.

Authoritarian responsiveness and political attitudes during COVID-19: evidence from Weibo and a survey experiment

How do citizens react to authoritarian responsiveness? To investigate this question, we study how Chinese citizens reacted to a novel government initiative which enabled social media users to publicly post requests for COVID-related medical assistance. To understand the effect of this initiative on public perceptions of government effectiveness, we employ a two-part empirical strategy. First, we conduct a survey experiment in which we directly expose subjects to real help-seeking posts, in which we find that viewing posts did not improve subjects' ratings of government effectiveness, and in some cases worsened them. Second, we analyze over 10,000 real-world Weibo posts to understand the political orientation of the discourse around help-seekers. We find that negative and politically critical posts far outweighed positive and laudatory posts, complementing our survey experiment results. To contextualize our results, we develop a theoretic framework to understand the effects of different types of responsiveness on citizens' political attitudes. We suggest that citizens' negative reactions in this case were primarily influenced by public demands for help, which illuminated existing problems and failures of governance. © 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Individual Surveillance Around Parked Aircraft at Nighttime: Thermal Infrared Vision-Based Human Action Recognition

The COVID-19 crisis has led to an unusually large number of commercial aircraft being currently parked or stored. For airlines, airports, and civil aviation authorities around the world, monitoring, and protecting these parked aircraft to prevent them from causing human-made damage are becoming urgent problems that are receiving increasing attention. In this study, we use thermal infrared monitoring videos to establish a framework for individual surveillance around parked aircraft by proposing a human action recognition (HAR) algorithm. As the focus of this article, the proposed HAR algorithm seamlessly integrates a preprocessing module in which a novel data structure is constructed to introduce spatiotemporal information of the action;a convolutional neural network-based module for spatial feature extraction;a triple-layer convolutional long short-term memory network for temporal feature extraction;and two fully connected layers for classification. Moreover, because no infrared dataset is available for the HAR task on airport grounds at nighttime, we present a dataset called IIAR-30, which consists of eight action categories that frequently occur on airport grounds and 2000 video clips. The experimental results on the IIAR-30 dataset demonstrated that the recognition accuracy of the proposed method was higher than 96%. We also further evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing it with five baselines and four other methods. © 2022 IEEE.

Impact of telehealth on improving access to pregnancy care in an underserved population

Objective: Social determinants of health (SDOH) contribute to health inequities in pregnancy. The availability, convenience, and timeliness of access to care affects healthcare utilization. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the need for efficient and widespread implementation of telehealth services. However, expanding telehealth services has changed adherence to maternal fetal medicine (MFM) at a large, urban, Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC). We describe the utilization of these services and its effect on adherence to MFM visits. Study Design: This is a retrospective, quality improvement project comparing non-adherence to scheduled visits looking at two time frames: 1) Pre-COVID (8/1/2018-2/29/2020) in-person only 2) Post-COVID 1/1/2021-7/31/2022 in-person or virtual. All encounters in MFM at FQHC were included during these periods. In the Post-COVID period, patients had the option for either in-person or virtual visit at the time of scheduling, while in pre-COVID period, in-person visit was the only option. Chi-square was used to compare differences between groups, with p< 0.05 defined as significant. Result(s): A total of 1,607 encounters were included, n=609 in the pre-COVID and n=998 in the post-COVID group. Encounter completion rates differed between the pre-COVID and post-COVID groups (80% vs. 86%, p= 0.001), Table. In the post-COVID group, when telehealth was an alternative option, non-adherence rates were significantly lower in comparison to when telehealth was not an option in the pre-COVID group. However, in the post-COVID group, the non-adherence rate between virtual only or in-person only visits were not significantly different (p=0.178). Conclusion(s): The availability of either in-person or virtual visits improved compliance and access to MFM care in a FQHC. While the option of telehealth services can improve patient compliance with visits, this may exacerbate other disparities due to limited internet services, access to remote devices, or language barriers. Further research is needed to understand how telehealth can be an ongoing solution to overcome the SDOH that create inequity. [Formula presented] [Formula presented] Copyright © 2022

Diagnosis, treatment and prevention of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in children: Experts' consensus statement (Fourth Edition)

Since December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS - CoV - 2) infections have raged globally for more than 2 years. China has always adopted scientific and effective prevention and control measures to achieved some success. However, with the continuous variation of SARS - CoV -2 cases and imported cases from abroad, the prevention and control work has become more difficult and complex. With the variation of the mutant strain, the number of cases in children changed, and some new special symptoms and complications were found, which proposed a new topic for the prevention and treatment of SARS - CoV - 2 infection in children in China. Based on the third edition, the present consensus according to the characteristics of the new strain, expounded the etiology, pathology, pathogenesis,and according to the clinical characteristics and experience of children's cases,and puts forward recommendaions on the diagnostic criteria,laboratory examination,treatment,prevention and control of children's cases for providing reference for further guidance of effective prevention and treatment of SARS - CoV - 2 infection in children in China. © 2022 Chinese Journal of Applied Clinical Pediatrics. All rights reserved.

TEACHER COMPETENCY MODEL IN HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AND LEGAL EXPERIENCE IN CHINESE UNIVERSITIES UNDER DIGITALIZATION

Digitalization of the economy, the emergence of the global pandemic COVID-19, daily life, creativity of modern youth, the rapid development of scientific and technological progress force heads of state and successful managers to consider the process of human resource management from another angle. In fact, today the international experience of human resource management shows results in which business leaders do not act as recruits and employers, but much higher. In the context of digitalization, the range of their everyday powers of leaders around the world in various sectors of the economy are expanding, focusing on human values. It is employers while hiring employees, has already talking about human rights, thinking about the personal development of their future employees, even the health and well-being of these staff. Employees, in turn, also force employers to be aware of their social problems. In particular, the practice in Ukraine proves that such an initiative of managers from a legal point of view is voluntary and is enshrined in the corporate norms of a functioning enterprise or organization. Thus, a new corporate culture of domestic business is formed and carries this message in the environment of international relations. And the well-being of human resources is becoming a priority area of the corporate social responsibility, which determines the relevance of the chosen topic of research and development of new strategies for personnel management to improve the enterprises' efficiency. The article deals with the aim to demonstrate the necessity of the implementation the teacher competency model as the innovative tool in human resource management. The authors achievedinteraction of four dimensions: basic competency (B), teaching competency (T), scientific research competency (R) and social service competency (S) in a certain logical relationship. The B + (T + R + S) model is used. The B in this model refers to the basic moral and psychological qualities that a university teacher must possess. The teaching competency, scientific research competency and social service competency (T + R + S) are the competencies that local universities must have in their work, which we call professional competency. Application of the proposed model on practice will allow HR professionals not only to pay attention to the current assessment of the performance of university teachers, but also to be the effective tool for comprehensive assessment of teachers' competencies under conditions of digitalization. this goal by researching the international legal and economic experience in the context of digitalization, as well as its application in the Chinese educational sphere. Various methods of scientific research were used by the authors to establish universal scientific standards for the selection, evaluation, training and management of teachers' work. Using the survey method, the interview method and the expert survey method, the authors identified and summarized certain terms regarding the competencies of university teachers. Using the statistical research method, the reliability of the model was evaluated. Factor analysis was used to verify the certainty of the structural model. The application of the Delphi method provided the expert group with 30 important competencies. Respondents to the expert survey were teachers from the local universities in 8 provinces in the Eastern, Central and Western China. The method of factor analysis of data allowed the authors to form their own model of competence of teachers at the Chinese universities. The model proposed by the authors has: 1) four dimensions: basic qualities, pedagogical competence, research competence and competence of social service;2) contains 22 indicators of second-level competence, which, unlike existing models, takes into account all research results and doesn't ignore the possibility of employees' professional development, even in the case of low rates of every person. It has been determined that the competency of teachers in local universities is formed by he interac ion of four dimensions: basic competency (B), teaching competency (T), scientific research competency (R) and social service competency (S) in a certain logical relationship. The B + (T + R + S) model is used. The B in this model refers to the basic moral and psychological qualities that a university teacher must possess. The teaching competency, scientific research competency and social service competency (T + R + S) are the competencies that local universities must have in their work, which we call professional competency. Application of the proposed model on practice will allow HR professionals not only to pay attention to the current assessment of the performance of university teachers, but also to be the effective tool for comprehensive assessment of teachers' competencies under conditions of digitalization.. © 2022, Consulting and Training Center - KEY. All rights reserved.

Exploring the effect of social media and spatial characteristics during the COVID-19 pandemic in China

The declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic has largely amplified the spread of related information on social platforms, such as Twitter, Facebook and WeChat. In this work, we investigate how the disease and information co-evolve in the population. We focus on COVID-19 and its information during the period when the disease was widely spread in China, i.e., from January 25th to March 24th, 2020. The co-evolution between disease and information is explored via the spatial analysis of the two spreading processes. We visualize the geo-location of both disease and information at the province level and find that disease is more geo-localized compared to information. High correlation between disease and information data is observed, and also people care about the spread of disease only when it comes to their neighborhood. Regard to the content of the information, we obtain that positive messages are more negatively correlated with the disease compared to negative and neutral messages. Additionally, two machine learning algorithms, i.e., linear regression and random forest, are introduced to further predict the number of infected using characteristics, such as disease spatial related and information-related features. We obtain that both the disease spatial related characteristics of nearby cities and information-related characteristics can help to improve the prediction accuracy. The methodology proposed in this paper may shed light on new clues of emerging infections prediction. Author

Improvement in COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Rates Between 2020-2021 in an Inner-City Dialysis Population and Associated Factors

Background: Studying how vaccination hesitancy has changed since the onset of the pandemic and understanding what changed people's opinions could help improve vaccination rate in susceptible populations with high background refusal rates. Method(s): Randomly selected hemodialysis patients in an inner-City Unit were surveyed in 2020 (19 by telephone) and 2021 (31 face to face) about vaccination history and attitudes towards vaccines. In 2020 participants were asked if they would receive a COVID-19 vaccine if available and in 2021 if they had received the vaccine. Respondents who planned to received the vaccine (2020) or received one or both doses (2021) were counted as VACYES while those who were unsure or refused were classified as VACNO. Respondents were also asked their primary reasons for their choice. Result(s): The 2021 group had a mean age of 56.1 +/- 17.9 yrs., mean time on dialysis was 6.2 +/- 7.2 yrs. There were 18 (58%) women and 13 (42%) men, 28 (90%) identified as black. The 2020 and 2021 groups were similar with respect to age, time on dialysis, sex, and race. In 2020, 21% were classified as VACYES compared to 84% of the 2021 sample (p < 0.001). Among VACNO pts the most commonly cited reason was "Safety" (80%). Between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients in 2021, there were no statistically significant differences with respect to age, time on dialysis, sex, race, education, insurance status and presence of diabetes. Among VACYES pts. the three most commonly cited reasons for their choice were "Recommended for people with underlying conditions" (38%), "Trust in healthcare" (45%), and "Safety of the vaccine" (44%). Conclusion(s): In our inner-city population: 1. Although people in our catchment have a low vaccination rate the majority of the dialysis population studied received the vaccine despite initial hesitancy. 2. Recommendations related to underlying conditions, improved confidence in the safety of the vaccine and trust in healthcare were the most important reasons for acceptance. 3. With vaccine efforts still underway, education programs should continue to focus on stressing the importance in people with underlying conditions, improving patient-provider partnering, and disseminating information regarding vaccine safety in order to improve adherence in our kidney disease patients, in whom almost 20% remain unvaccinated.

Tongue and pulse features of 668 asymptomatic patients infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 omicron variant in Shanghai.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the tongue and pulse manifestations in asymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Shanghai. METHODS: We conducted a clinical study of 668 patients with asymptomatic infections in which we analyzed the tongue and pulse features in the Shanghai New International Expo Center mobile cabin hospital. The medical records of the patients, including tongue color, tongue coating, and pulse manifestations, were reviewed by healthcare workers. RESULTS: In total, 668 COVID-19 cases were included in the study. Patient age ranged from 5 to 96 years, with a median of 44.0 (IQR 33.0-53.0) years. Among the patients, 6.14% had comorbidities. The most common comorbid condition was diabetes (1.65%), followed by hypertension (0.89%), coronary heart disease (0.89%), thrombotic diseases (0.89%), congestive heart failure (0.60%), and stroke (0.45%). Pink-red (75.4%) was the most common tongue color, followed by red (23.4%) and pale red (1.2%). Tongue coating color and thickness were classified as white fur (9.28%), thin and yellow fur (48.65%), white greasy fur (8.98%), yellow greasy fur (24.70%), and less coating (8.39%). In addition, a large number of patients ( 300, 44.91%) presented superficial and rapid pulses, and 250 patients (37.4%) exhibited a slippery pulse. CONCLUSION: Our preliminary results showed that wind, heat, and dampness were the main etiologies of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant infection in traditional Chinese medicine. Furthermore, the main symptoms of the disease may be wind-heat invading the lung syndrome or damp-heat with the exuberance of virulence syndrome, which is of most significance in COVID-19 treatment.

[The influence of meteorological factors on SARS-CoV-2 transmission: evidence from laboratory and epidemiological studies].

SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 600 million people worldwide and caused more than 6 million deaths. The emerging novel variants have made the epidemic rebound in many places. Meteorological factors can affect the epidemic spread by changing virus activity, transmission dynamic parameters and host susceptibility. This paper systematically analyzed the currently available laboratory and epidemiological studies on the association between the meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence, in order to provide scientific evidence for future epidemic control and prevention, as well as developing early warning system.

Attitudes Regarding COVID-19 Vaccine and Vaccine Hesitancy in an Inner-City Kidney Transplant Recipients (KTRs)

Purpose: KTRs comprise a high-risk group for COVID-19 infection due to comorbidities and immunosuppression. Studying how vaccination hesitancy in inner-city KTRs has changed since the onset of the pandemic and their attitudes towards the vaccine in general is integral in the advancement of a successful vaccination effort. Method(s): A random sample of 30 KTRs in 2020 and 9 recipients in 2021 were surveyed about attitudes towards and history of vaccines. Respondents who received both doses, one dose, or were planning on doing so were recorded as VACYES while those who were unsure or refused were recorded as VACNO. Respondents were also asked their top reasons for receiving or not receiving the vaccine. Result(s): Mean age in 2020 was 57.8 +/- 10.6 yrs, time since transplant was 8.9 +/- 6.6 yrs with18 (60%) men, 20 (71.4%) identified as black. Mean age in 2021 was 50.9 yrs +/- 9.1 yrs, time since transplant 6.8 yrs +/- 8.6 yrs with 3 (33.3%) men. There was no significant difference between the two samples for time since transplant, age sex, race, or percent with diabetes or hypertension. Prior to vaccine availability in 2020 only 36.7% indicated they would accept a COVID-19 vaccination. By 2021, the number had increased to 66.7% who had either received or were planning on receiving the vaccine (p < 0.001). Among the pts who were VACNO in 2020, the most commonly cited reason was concern about vaccine safety (53%). Between VACYES and VACNO patients in 2021, there were no statistically significant differences with respect to time since transplant, sex, race, education or comorbidities but VACYES pts were older (58.8+/-2.3 vs 47.0+/-8.7 yrs, p=0.021). Among VACYES, the most commonly cited reason for vaccine acceptance was that it was recommended for people with underlying conditions (80%). 100% of VACYES felt confident about the safety and efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines compared to 33% of VACNO. 100% of VACYES believed it is okay for the government to mandate vaccinations compared to 0% of VACNO. 100% of VACNO pts felt COVID-19 was preventable vs 100% of VACYES who stated they did not know (p<0.05). 86% of both VACYES and VACNO believe that the hospital system could take care of them if sick with COVID-19. Conclusion(s): In our population: 1. Vaccine hesitancy has decreased in our inner-city KTR sample compared to the previous year, but almost 40% remain unvaccinated. 2. The most important reason cited for receiving the vaccine was because it was recommended for patients with underlying conditions. 3. Pts who received the vaccine were older, feel more confident about its safety and efficacy, and believe a government mandate is ok. 4. Pts who refused were more likely to believe that COVID-19 is preventable. 5. Regardless of vaccination status, pts believed that the healthcare system could help them if sick with COVID-19. 6. Understanding the motivation for acceptance and reasons for refusal in underserved KTR populations will be important in increasing vaccine acceptance.

Research on Forecasting of Port Bulk Freight Volume during the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Time Series Analysis

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the collection and distribution system of ports freight has been a certain impacted. In this paper, the bulk cargo transportation volume of Guangzhou Port is taken as the research object, and the seasonal ARIMA model is applied to forecast the bulk cargo volume in 2020. The predicted result is regarded as the standard value without being impacted by the COVID-19. After comparing with the actual value in 2020, the impact index is calculated, which reveals that at different stages of this pandemic the bulk cargo transportation in Guangzhou Port has been affected in some way. In particular, during February and March 2020, because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 and Spring Festival, bulk freight volume transported by highway and railway in Guangzhou Port suffered grievously. The freight volume of coal and grain in Guangzhou Port also showed different fluctuations due to the impact of COVID-19 in 2020. In view of the impact situation of the bulk cargo transportation in Guangzhou Port, suggestions are put forward for the management of port collection and distribution in the post-pandemic era. © 2022 IEEE.